Is Prevent Defense Preventing Wins?

It’s a rather common cliche in the NFL, that prevent defense prevents from winning a game. Is it a believable theory? Certainly. And if you’re not sold, maybe you need look no farther than the Denver Broncos’ last three games. Granted, yes, they are 2-1 in those games, but if you are a Denver fan you know that those two wins should have been blowouts, not nail-biters (not that their 49-21 win over Philly was close, but at the start of the 4th quarter it was anyone’s game). In case you missed it, a 28-3 lead over the Patriots shrunk to eight points before a late defensive stand helped Denver preserve the win in week 6. The following game, the Broncos saw a 23-10 lead turn into a 24-23 Giants win in the closing seconds. And this past Sunday, a 28-0 advantage over the Eagles became 28-21 at the end of the 3rd quarter before the Broncos pulled away). Add to this the fact that three other teams have blown leads of 17 points of more in 2005, and a red flag should be raised. Surely, if you can build a lead that big, why can’t you hold it?
It would appear to shape up this way: teams will employ their defensive gameplan up to the point of building a huge lead, but once that lead is built, they will sit back and only rush four defensive lineman for fear of giving up a momentum-shifting big-yardage play. Worse yet for those teams, offenses can sense that and are not afraid to spread the defense out, or even take shots downfield. By switching to a prevent defense, a team is playing scared and straying away from what was successful for them early in the game. If a defense is wreaking havoc on an opposing quarterback early on, it can rattle his confidence. A good defensive football team will continue to attack, but strangely there is a trend of teams giving quarterbacks time to develop a rhythm.
This is not to say that the prevent defense is a bad thing, but for many teams it is in fact sending a message that "we are playing not to lose rather than playing to win". But then again there are some teams for whom the prevent defense may work, teams that can consistently generate pressure with their front four, thus not having to blitz to pressure the quarterback. But that is a select list, with only teams such as Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, and Carolina having the personnel to do so. So for the rest of the league, the message ought to be clear: play to win the game.

More than refreshing to see these Sox win it all

Alas, the Sox are world champions in 2005... the White Sox, that is. Yes that's right, the Chicago White Sox, who hadn't tasted a title since World War I, 1917 to be exact. Sure it was a four-game sweep, but this was still a very exciting World Series. The Astros and White Sox have similar styles of play, which is why all four games were decided by two runs or less, including a 14-inning classic in Game 4. So the ChiSox are second to none now, not even the beloved Cubs, who will have to now take a back seat to their partners on the South Side.
And how refreshing the 2005 MLB season has been. When the LCS rolled around, no Yankees and no Red Sox. Quite frankly, you couldn't ask for much more. No big egos. No massive payroll. No egotistical owner. Just a group of hard-working, blue-collar type players that played fundamentally sound baseball on a consistent basis. The old-fashioned way, if you will. Sure, the series didn't feature Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, or David Ortiz, but so what? This was old school baseball, and the White Sox earned it, and after they heard it all throughout the season: they're going to choke; they play in a soft division; they can't compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. And yet they persevered, winning an American League-best 99 games and their first division title in five years. And in case anyone doubted them entering October, they won 11 of their 12 postseason games just for good measure. And now classy owner Jerry Reinsdorf can enjoy this title as he did the six that his Chicago Bulls won in the 1990s. And best yet, another season has passed without George Steinbrenner putting another ring on his finger, while A-Rod and Giambi are still searching for their first. Oh, and Red Sox Nation? Shut up. You can just get back on the Patriots bandwagon, but even that isn't a lock in 2005.
But we're here to congratulate the Chicago White Sox, not bash the hated Red Sox and Yankees. To congratulate Frank Thomas, who has battled recent injuries after being one of the most dominant players in the 90s and now finally has reached the top. And to congratulate GM Ken Williams, whose savvy and smarts have provided the Sox a core group of players that could keep them in contention for years to come. And who could overlook the job that second-year manager Ozzie Guillen did? He was as fiery on the bench this year as he was in his playing days, when he became a fan favorite on the South Side. In all, it was a magical ride for the White Sox in 2005, and how refreshing it is to see the city of Chicago boast a World Series championship, even if it isn't the lovable Cubbies.

Eagles looking to buck SBH trend

Not sure what SBH stands for? Just ask the St. Louis Rams. Or better yet, the Oakland Raiders. It stands for Super Bowl Hangover, and it's a serious syndrome experienced by many a team who've seen their championship dreams crushed in the Big Game. The Atlanta Falcons were the first to suffer from it, following a 34-19 loss in Super Bowl XXXIII to Denver with a dismal, injury-riddled 5-11 campaign in 1999. Two years later, the Giants failed to crack .500 a year after falling to the Ravens in Super XXXV. And since then, the Rams, Raiders, and Panthers have all had losing seasons following a Super Bowl loss.
So here are the 2005 Eagles, who came into training camp with a 24-21 loss to the Patriots in February still fresh on their minds (not to mention numerous distractions from loudmouth receiver Terrell Owens and whining by scatback Brian Westbrook). Through six games, Philly is 4-2 but lucky to be so, relying almost solely on the passing game to generate points. After dominating the NFC a year ago, few realistically thought the Eagles would crumble as teams before them have. They may not go 13-3, or even with the competitive NFC East, but they almost assuredly will have a sixth straight winning season. This should come as a relief to obnoxious Eagles fans, who won't be witnessing a downfall like the Raiders have since suffering a 48-21 blugeoning to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl XXXVII.
To say Oakland has hit the skids since the end of the 2002 season is an understatement. Once an AFC powerhouse, the Raiders are simply overmatching in the talented AFC West, and winning in the notorious Black Hole no longer seems like a daunting task. Entering last Sunday's contest against Buffalo, the Raiders were 10-27 since the start of 2003, including just two wins away from home. In 2003, players lost complete respect for head coach Bill Callahan, constantly ripping him in the media, eventually leading to Callahan's dismissal after a horrid 4-12 season. Norv Turner, the former Redskins coach, has not fared much better, as his team won just 5 games in his first year last season. And at 2-4 (including the win yesterday against the Bills), the Raiders have virtually no chance at competing for the playoffs. Injuries and malcontention have added up to a disastrous recipe, something that almost would have inevitably been different had the Raiders beaten the Bucs in the Super Bowl.
And the Raiders aren't alone. The Rams have one just one playoff game in the past three seasons since being shocked by 14-point-underdog New England in Super Bowl XXXVI, while the Giants have won none. The Panthers appear back on track, but first had to see a chunk of its roster land on Injured Reserve last year as the team got off to 1-7 start before a strong finish nearly landed them back in the playoffs.
So what is the cause of SBH? I for one will go with the mental strain that comes from dealing with a loss in the Super Bowl and knowing you came so close to ultimate glory. It becomes that much harder knowing you worked that hard to get to that point and telling yourself, well if we can get there, then certainly we can get back and win it. But contributing factors such as injuries and player movement simply make it hard to get back to the Super Bowl, let alone the playoffs. Hearing about the Eagles and Patriots is like listening to a broken record, but the bottom line is they have been staples in the playoffs while other teams have been rather inconsistent over the past few years. I'd love more than anyone to see both of these teams miss out on the postseason in 2005, but that simply isn't reality. The Eagles are a safe bet to buck the SBH trend, but only time will tell.

Browns vs. Texans -- the first 4 years

The honeymoon is officially over for the Houston Texans. At 0-4, they are staring at the rest of the NFL as the only remaning winless team. It wasn't supposed to go this way. The Texans progressed slowly but steadily through their first three seasons, increasing their win total from 4 to 5 to 7, narrowly missing a .500 finish last year with a week 17 loss to Cleveland. So naturally, year four equals playoffs, right? Apparently not. David Carr, the first overall pick in the 2002 NFL Draft, has already been sacked 27 times this season as the Texans have the lowest-ranked offense in the league. The defense has given up far too many plays. And the team has already fired its offensive coordinator, giving Chris Palmer the boot after just two games.
Oddly enough, it was Palmer who was the first head coach in the new era of the Cleveland Browns. He lasted just two years, posting a 5-27 record. And while Dom Capers has far more credibility in the coaching ranks than Butch Davis ever did, it is the Browns who earned a playoff berth in their fourth season back, not the Texans, it would appear. Like Houston, Cleveland improved its win total in its first three years, also reaching 7-9 by year three. But unlike Cleveland, Houston does not appear poised to go 9-7 and reach the postseason, as the Browns did in 2002. Granted, Cleveland played in a much weaker AFC that year, but Houston is miles away from the playoffs at this point. The offensive line is porous, a trend that started when the team made All-Pro tackle Tony Boselli the first pick in the expansion draft, only to have Boselli retire because of injuries before ever playing a snap for the Texans.
Now, the coach, quarterback, and even general manager Charlie Casserly are in hot water. Casserly must share some of the blame after jettisoning some of the Texans most productive defensive players in its first three seasons. Jamie Sharper was a salary cap casualty, Aaron Glenn and injury liability, and Jay Foreman was simply not needed was the apaprent logic behind these moves. Yet the youthful exuberance supposed to be displayed by the Texans of defense has yet to be seen, and the biggest defensive acquisition, cornerback Phillip Buchanon from the Raiders, has been a complete bust, so much so that he was benched after week 2. So far, not so good.
The Texans remaining schedule is no walk in the park, either, as they head to Seattle and host undefeated Indianapolis in the next two weeks before getting a visit from -- guess wh0 -- Cleveland, against whom they are 0-2 lifetime. As of now, it looks like the Texans are regressing, not progressing.